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26 มีนาคม On climate changeThe latest news is that the oceans are cooler than expected, something we can't explain very well.
In related news, I've decided to declare my agnosticism on the subject of climate change. I officially don't care whether climate change is real, anthropogenic, or not.
It's not that I'm not an environmentalist. I am. I care deeply about the environment. So much so that I'm doing my best to reduce my pollution regardless of whether climate change is real, anthropogenic, or not. I don't care who's to blame, I care about what I can do.
So why the agnostic thing? Why not pound the drum with the rest? It's because pounding the drum has been tried, and didn't work. Simply declaring a state of emergency is insufficient- it doesn't lead anywhere but desperately into the hands of those eager to capitalize on the well-meaning. Besides, this issue has been politicized to the point where its difficult to tell where the science ends and the propaganda begins. At some point, this stopped being about science and it started to be about political power.
When I was a kid in the 1970s, I recall being lectured about the imminent global cooling that would plunge us all into ice age famine. Back then scientists made dire predictions that the planet could not sustain a population greater than 4 billion people. We were told to switch away from burning coal and wood toward cleaner oil and gas, which didn't have all that sun-blocking, planet-cooling particulate matter (and I'll note that they got the part about less sulfur, mercury, and acid rain right). We were told that our only hope for growing enough food would be breakthroughs in modern agriculture technology and practice.
More recently, the guidance was to eschew petroleum, and use biofuels.
The only trouble is... ethanol is worse, environmentally, than gasoline. And modern farming practices create pollution and runoff that render vast tracts of the ocean into dead zones- which may mean farming the way we do it results in a net food production loss. ...and, of course, using a food crop for fuel when food security is a concern... well, darn. True, diagnostic science is becoming much better than it was, but the policies we come up with as a result of listening to the data are still terrible. Corn ethanol is mere pork, and disastrous pork at that.
The good news is that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that blowing poison into the air we breathe is dumb. It doesn't take a rhodes scholar to figure out that sooner or later we'll run out of petroleum to buy for too much money from people who don't like us, so maybe we should figure out a way to replace it. So I'm doing my part. I've replaced my furnace with a hybrid heat-pump system, which uses hydro-electric power to extract heat from the air. I've doubled the insulation in my home. I'm pricing solar power systems, and weighing the cost/benefit against getting a more efficient car or using transit more- I'll end up doing both, the question is which comes first. (probably the car). I'm putting my money where my mouth is, and hopefully, so are you. Because the folks who save the day will be consumers like you and me- and it won't be guilt or government policy that changes the way we live, it'll be engineering and economics and individuals making individual choices that result in real action. 23 มีนาคม Meritocracy or bust. Literally.We enjoy the greatest degree of social and economic mobility of any time or place in history. We reward those who strive and better themselves. Unless, of course, they are not legal residents. This is the line at which our fair and sensible treatment of our fellow man ends.
Put yourself in this spot: your parents came here illegally, so you grew up illegal too. You put yourself through school, without access to financial aid, and you face a future in which you cannot use your degree to serve others or better yourself. ...unless you leave the country and go through a 15-year process that is famously arbitrary.
This, friends, is tragedy writ large. If you put yourself through school, have done so without access to social services, are not a criminal, are a functional, contributing member of society, you should for damned sure have a clear way to become a citizen. By the same token, our immigration policies should be meritocratic- we should take the best and brightest who will come.
Face it- the best and brightest will thrive wherever they go. Best that they should do so here, contribute to this society, and cast their lot with us. If we don't make that possible for them here, they will make it inevitable elsewhere. This nation is what it is today quite simply because it has been the closest thing the world has ever seen to a true meritocracy- a place where you can come and work and thrive based on the value you produce, instead of who you or your parents were. This leaves us with a clear choice- be a nation that rewards talent or be a nation that becomes irrelevant. 10 มีนาคม Five Zero.Fifty freekin' years.
That's a big number. In today's age where half of all marriages end in divorce and most don't make it past a decade, these two are rare ducks indeed. And I'm grateful for that- they raised the girl who I would one day marry. Together their children have 7 children of their own (one of which is my son, Liam). Together they've caused a whole lot of lovin' to go down.
Today I'm on Maui, celebrating with my wife and her siblings (and their spouses) the fiftieth wedding anniversary of her parents, Bob and Cynthia Clotworthy. They are, to put it bluntly, bonkers. Both of them. And I love them to distraction.
Bob and Cynthia met while both were members of the US team for the Pan American games in Mexico City, circa 1955. Bob won olympic bronze in Helsinki (1952), and would go on to win olympic gold in Melbourne the following olympiad. Since then, he's coached swimming and diving for a living, and has recently retired. Along the way they raised some sweet kids- not all of them necessarily related to them. When you coach, you leave your mark on people.
It turns out that our host in Maui was one of them- he captained a university swim team Bob coached, and happened to have a guest house available (and an insatiable appetite for longboarding, an appetite I was all too grateful to accompany him with). Our visit turned into an opportunity to meet cousins on the island I'd never met, and the occasion of our visit turned up connections nobody knew about- Bob has coached a lot of people over the years.
As part of the festivities, we went on a whale-watching cruise, went snorkeling at Molokini, ate fantastic food, slept in a friend-of-a-friend's guest house, surfed, swam, and basically did homage to the culprits responsible for it all.
03 มีนาคม A cynical reason to be upbeat. About pretty much everythingIf you haven't yet read Robert Wright's book NonZero: The logic of human destiny, drop everything and go get a copy. In it, he provides a compelling analysis of history through the lens of game theory, and he derives from it a number of trends, the most compelling of which is that the arc of history is driven by the evolutionary process of ideas and culture, and that this evolution is not merely one of greater technological complexity, but also of increasing moral capacity as well.
He arrives at this broad conclusion by turning the rightly-reviled idea of social darwinism on its head- instead of arguing that we as individuals are more advanced than our forebears (a notion used by social darwinists to justify horrifying inhumanity), he notes that the cultures in which we live are significantly evolved- more interrelated, predicated more and more upon mutually beneficial arrangements and rule of law than ever before. By any measure, the cultures in which we operate evolve over the broad arc of history, and are moving inexorably in the direction of greater capacity for moral behavior.
This is seemingly at odds with the 'common sense' view, in which each atrocity in the news provides fresh evidence of how brutal and amoral humanity can be- how, precisely, does one argue that morality is advancing, when the news still reports genocide in our time?
The answer is ironically rooted in cynicism: out of necessity. It's in our interest to not just get along, but also to create mutually beneficial relationships with everyone we can. In this age where weapons are getting cheaper and longer-range, where communication is instant, world-wide, and available to anyone, the correlation of everybody's fortunes is closer and more meaningful than it has ever been. It is in our self-interest to not only understand the impact we have on others, but also to be responsible for the impact we have, and to work to right wrongs on the other side of the world. And although it's easy to become frustrated at others' unwillingness to figure it out, it is happening- at the speed of consensus, which is (of course) appallingly slow, but inevitable.
To be clear, we haven't always cared about that stuff- the welfare of people on the other side of the planet hasn't been remotely interesting to us until very recently, and as Adam Smith observed, we cannot understand those we have no interest in understanding- our moral capacity therefore extends no further than our sphere of self-interest. Arguably, if you look at our foreign policy for the last 60 years, we still don't care enough to change the way we do business. Our policy has been to support stable governments friendly to our interests, even when those governments haven't necessarily represented their people very well. A good part of the chaos in the world today is due to the self-interested, moral rejection of this sort of hegemony- and it serves to remind us that our own interest really is in making the world a better place for everyone- our fortunes really are intertwined. That doesn't mean submit to the domination they offer, or for us to dominate them- it means find common ground.
In sum: we have a clear choice: we can react negatively to the news, or we can learn the lesson it's teaching us: until we can make the world work for everyone, it won't work for anyone. This is a hard thing to propose: after all, it's not like a suicide bomber presents a compelling case for evolving your capacity to see things his way. It's much easier to demonize him(her?) and send in the troops to stamp out that sort of bad behavior. The only problem is that our troops are no more appealing to their better angels than their suicide bombers are to ours.
Einstein once famously said, "the problems of today cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them”, and he was right: this calls for an evolution in our capacity to put ourselves in someone else's shoes, see things from their perspective, and take responsibility for the impact we really have on them, instead of demonizing and suppressing them.
Yeah, it's cynical- we have two options, neither of which we'd rather take. We don't want to change our ways any more than anybody else does, but the alternative is worse: if we fail to evolve and thrive in the face of a changing world, we become dinosaurs ourselves, watching resentfully as history marches onward, over our resistant, increasingly irrelevant corpses.
So why be upbeat? Deep down, we already want to do the right thing. Scratch the cynical surface of even the most resigned of us and you'll find someone burning to make the world a better place. And the truth is that although we all say we want peace, our cultural conversation has not yet evolved in sufficient numbers to the point that we want to be peaceful. We want respect, but haven't internalized the fact that this means respecting others. We want the benefts of global commerce and evolving technology, but we haven't been interested in making it beneficial to others. We want the results, but if we're really honest with ourselves, the real reasons we don't have those results is not that they're impossible, it's that we haven't really been at all interested in doing what it takes to produce them. This might sound like bad news, but it's empowering news: the reasons for all the trouble in the world are within our grasp, within our power to change. Now all there is to do is whatever it takes to be the change we all want to see in the world.
The way we create the best possible world for ourselves is by creating the best world we can for everyone. ...and take heart from the fact that it's going to happen, even if we're not the ones that deliver.
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